PREVIEW OF THE FED MEETING: WHAT ARE THE SCENARIOS?
This week, the main agenda of the USA is the interest rate decision that will be announced by the Fed on Wednesday. In addition, the FOMC press conference to be held after the decision is also on the important agenda of the markets. Although no changes are expected in the interest and asset purchase program in the markets regarding the FED, the statements to be included in the decision text and the future projections are of critical importance. Whether the timing of the rate hike has changed or not will be among the important details in the point graph in which the Fed includes its projections. Fed Chairman Powell, who has been in a dovish stance for a long time, is also on the radar of the markets. After a meeting decision in line with the market expectation, the possibility of continuation of flat pricing in the markets is strong.
If the Fed changes the bond purchase rate or interest projection regarding its meeting to be held tomorrow, there may be sharp price movements in the markets. The damaged employment outlook and sustained inflation concerns weaken the Fed's hand somewhat. Especially a change to be made in the interest projection may increase the profitable outlook on the dollar side. We do not expect the general scenario to change much in the markets if the Fed reiterates its emphasis on financial support by remaining on hold on the interest rate.
If the Fed displays a dovish stance and only speaks verbally, the continuation of the dollar negative scenario may limit the downward trend in the pair. It is seen that the mobility above the 1.19 level is trying to be maintained in the parity, which returns with a stretch from 1.1850. Especially if the Fed holds a meeting in line with the expectations, it can be expected that the parity will increase its attacks towards the 1.20 level with the resistance of 1.1958 again. We will be following 1.2052 and 1.2090 resistance levels at close above this level. However, if 1.19 support is the first attack point in a possible strong dollar scenario, if this level is exceeded, the decreases can be expected to continue up to 1.1850 support.
In case the Fed maintains an optimistic statement in its projections by not changing the interest rates in line with the expectations, the horizontal prices in the markets may continue to be preserved. Especially with the emphasis on inflation, we can see that the recovery in precious metal gains momentum. In this context, the course of the prices above the 1700 level is important. With the maintenance of this level, we are following the 1745 and 1765 resistance levels in the rises that may occur in the precious metal. However, we will have 1705 and 1685 critical support crossing points in case of retreats that may occur due to a possible sub-1725 mobility.
The Nasdaq index, which started the week with the rising momentum with the stimulus package and economic recovery phrases, continues to try to maintain its appearance above the level of 13,000. In the index, which intensifies its attacks towards the 13.143 level, increases may target the resistance levels of 13.320 and 13.461, depending on the occurrence of closures above this level. However, if the Fed emphasizes that the uncertainty regarding the economic outlook increases, we are following a downward realization in the index within the framework of 12,976 support. This below-level close may open dips to test the support levels of 12.743 and 12.554.